refinancing crisis

The refinancing crisis that has recently affected so many people both in America and around the world seems to be only a step in an overall mortgage crisis that will no doubt shift from the private home mortgage holder to the commercial world in the years to come.

A refinancing crisis in commercial real estate is the subject of a special report that can be read on scribd which is available at the end of this page.

There was a commercial real estate crash back in the 1990's. Then the crash came as a result of an over abundant supply of CRE properties in a market where there was no demand for such properties. This time around however, this report is predicting that the future CRE crash will not be due to supply and demand chain. It will come as a result of "massive deterioration in underwriting standards and a concurrent rise of excessive leverage".

What does that mean ?

Sure if you've read anything on this blog before you are aware that I talk of a lot about fantastic stuff, some of which would be better suited to science fiction than to current reality or reality in the making, but this time I am talking about the reality that could come in the next decade if these economists and financial analysts are correct.

2012 is just one year in that time frame. Dramatic changes in the economy, perhaps involving the real estate refinancing crises mentioned here could very well mean dramatic changes in the living standard conditions of a large number of people. 2012 is often used in stories of hardship.

Many of the high leverage commercial loans in question here were issued between 2005 and 2007 and the authors suggest that these loans will fall on hard times when they come up for refinancing at maturity.

When are these loans due ?

Business venture loans, in stable times, are often pushed forward without much fuss when contract refinancing dates come due. But the ability of the lenders to extend refinancing due dates may be jeapordized due to the excessive use of leverage used by the real estate investors.

Bankers became generous in 2005 in a scenario that echoes the subprime housing mortgage crisis. Remember that one...If you had an ARM when the troubles started and you were schedualed to meet with your refinancing mortgage lender then you certainly do.

ARM's are adjustable rate mortgages. When the contract is due then a new rate is negotiated which can and has led many home owners into very deep waters.

The CRE crisis in question is about the same scenario only it deals with those businesses that hire the masses (to an extent).

Will the bankers who signed the credit lines to the real estate speculators starting in 2005 be able to extend the contracts when it comes time for refinancing these adjustable rated highly leveraged loans or will the have to renegotiate them all at new rates on the exact due date?

Will this cause another wave of destruction in the fabric of society?

This is not necessarily a 2012 issue but it does ring alarms or warnings as to just how sensitive the global economy has become.

Changes will come of this but will those changes be simply democratic reforms where people quietly change the rules of the game and pick up the pieces to rework a better future or will the changes come as radical revolutionary civil causes.

The latter is not so improbable when one considers the implications that a major failure of the economy could have of the psyche of people who are accustomed to getting up, going to work, going home, and doing it all over again, and again, and again.

So here's another thing to add to the list of possible things that might change our world dramatically in the years surrounding 2012.

Refinancing mortgage lenders; refinancing loan rates on contract due date; refinancing cost to society.

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What is 2012?
Venus Transit - Galactic Alignment - Spiritual Ascension - TimeWave Zero - 13.0.0.0.0 the end of the Baktun Long Count - December 21, 2012 Winter Solstice - A portal into the Yuga Golden Age
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The Future Refinancing Crisis in CRE